2014 Senate Elections

     The Republicans keep talking about a huge Senate landslide in 2014.  The Democrats are allegedly overleveraged with too many seats that they picked up with the 2008 Obama swing year.  That's actually really humorous.  The reason is because they were saying the exact same thing in 2012.  I remember about a year ago I was watching FOX News (a horrible habit I find myself doing every once and again, you'll have to forgive me) and Karl Rove was going on and on, (practically taking a victory lap six months before the polls opened) about how bad the Democrats were going to lose the Senate, and how Romney was going to come in with a landslide and pick up every swing state and Senate seat in that state.  But that's not what happened. 

     Except for Nevada, every swing state sent a Democrat to the United States Senate.  Even some Republican states like North Dakota and Montana that were supposed to send Reds to Washington sent Dems.  Now the exact same pollsters are saying the exact same thing again.  "Too many seats.  Huge Republican year." say the strategists.  But this doesn't line up with the facts.  The four southern states with Dem senators are likely to retain them due to a combination of weak challengers, moderate records, and unpopular Republican policies from their state legislators and Governors. 
     Alaska is likely to keep Senator Begich.  His challengers include the failed 2010 candidate, the Lieutenant Governor, and Sarah Palin, all of which he beats in the polls.  It does look like Montana and South Dakota will be lost as Senators Baucus and Johnson retire and don't look like the nominees will be strong enough to win.  I'm somewhat optimistic.  I believe that with enough funding, good messaging and a strong campaign a good Democrat can win anywhere in the country. 

     There is still a possibility the Democratic Party can pick up any seats that are lost and call the whole cycle a wash.  Georgia is looking like it is going to have what I call a “Tea Party Primary,” or a TPP.  The TPP has one and only one rule.  Out-crazy your opponent.  And wow, do the three main Republicans running have that!  On the other hand the likely Democratic nominee will be Michelle Nunn, a non-for-profit founder (not as prestigious as Bain Capital, but still a good job) and the daughter of a popular former Senator.  The statements the likely GOP nominee will have to say to win a midterm primary will have to be so outrageous that they’ll turn-off thousands of people who would have  otherwise voted  for them.  That coupled with the nominee will be a sitting member of the Congress with a 10% approval rating will bring along the baggage that they are part of problem with Washington, and moving them across the Capitol building probably won’t do much.

     Kentucky may even drop Mitch McConnell in exchange for his Democratic opponent.  Minority leaders have been defeated before.  It can be done again.